Журнал инфекционных заболеваний и терапии

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Critical Factors of Infection Wavy Curve Oscillation of COVID-19 and Future Predictions in Japan

Tatsuaki Tsuruyama

A novel model based on the macromolecule diffusion theory predicted the oscillation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 infections. In this model, the diffusion coefficient, which depends on population density, determines the wavy oscillation frequency. The recovery rate of infected individuals determines the wavy amplitude. These two factors are critical factors beyond which the value of the infection phase abruptly changes, such as the phase transition. Therefore, we must ensure that the values remain within the critical values of social and medical preventive measures. The number of new infections was expected to peak around the 200-day serial intervals.