Журнал наук о Земле и изменения климата

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Forecasting of Strong Earthquakes M>6 According to Energy Approach

Venelin Jivkov, Venkatanathan Natarajan, Anelya Paneva and Philip Philipoff

The temperature radiation (by the Outgoing Longwave Radiation method) is used for the earthquake forecasting. The data are obtained by satellite systems. Earthquakes with magnitudes M>6 are investigated. The quantity criteria for earthquake forecasting estimation are elaborated in the study. The average of the output resistance is calculated for double year period before the crash for the specific areas of the Earth's surface (fair circle). Two values are compered in the study: 1) the average value for the double year period before the crash and 2) the instantaneous value of the emissions in the year of disaster occurred. This comparison defines time interval. In this time interval is realized the most quantity energy, due collision between the earth plates.

The values of: coefficients of OLR variations, the maximum value of radiated energy [kWh/m²] and the time interval of disaster occurred are calculated for ten earthquakes.

Work hypothesis for strong earthquake forecasting (maximum value of radiated energy in kWh/m² and time period in days) is presented in the study. This hypothesis is based on obtained results and trends.