Журнал наук о Земле и изменения климата

Абстрактный

Projection of Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Patterns in Oman

Yassine Charabi

Oman is one of most water-stressed countries in the world. Therefore, keeping water and energy supply and demand in equilibrium in a pressing development is a challenge facing Oman in the years ahead. The threat from the potential impacts of climate change has growing with the recent tropical cyclones that had affected the country and caused loss of life and substantial damage throughout the coastal areas of Oman. The design of an effective climate change strategy requires a deep knowledge about the past, the present climate and also requires an accurate estimation of the plausible change in future climate. This paper presents a rather complete picture about the current (1961-1990) and future (2011-2070) projection of the pattern of rainfall and temperature. For the assessment of the future climate projection over Oman, the 21st century the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A1B, forcing scenario is used with the climate model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3). The A1B scenario clearly shows future minimum temperature increases that are in line with the results shown that minimum temperatures will experience the greatest impact from climate change. The simulation shows that the northern of Oman is expected to face decreasing rainfall in the coming decades. In a region where historic average annual rainfall levels are between 50 and 100 mm for the northern coast area, climate change is expected to lead to between 20 and 40 mm less rainfall by 2040. This is equivalent to a reduction in average annual rainfall of about 40%. With less future rainfall in northern areas, groundwater recharge, surface water flow and water quality are expected to also decrease.