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Regional and Temporal Variations in the Prevalence of HCV among Hemodialysis Patients in Saudi Arabia

Mohamed Shoukri, Mohamed Al Sebayel, Faisal Abaalkhail, Hany Elbeshbeshy, Mohamed Abdelfatah, Waleed Al-Hamoudi, Ahmed Elgohary, Abdelrahman Housawi, Futwan Al-Mohanna and Hussien Elsiesy

Hepatitis C infection among Hemodialysis (HD) patients is a recognized global problem. The incidence and prevalence of HCV in dialysis patients vary widely among geographical regions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). However, the HCV incidence has marked decline in all regions within KSA. But it is noted that the risk of occasional nosocomial transmission remains. We intend to apply the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models to develop a scientific strategy to estimate the future burden of HCV in dialysis units. These predictions may provide baseline information for disease management intervention and cost control. The model based predictions show that the decline in the HCV incidence which started in 2004 is projected to potentially reach zero by the year 2014.