Журнал инфекционных заболеваний и терапии

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Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of COVID-19 Epidemics in Shanghai

Lequan Min

Background: Globally COVID-19 epidemics have caused tremendous disasters. As the best city to prevent the COVID-19 infection in China, Shanghai experienced five wave COVID-19 epidemics but only has 388 confirmed cases and 7 deaths from January 20 2020 to January 4, 2022.

Methods: This study summarizes, analyzes and simulates COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai, estimates transmission rates and blocking rates to symptomatic infections.

Results: Key findings for simulations were that for five waves of epidemics, after reaching the infection turning point, the blocking rate of symptomatic infection is over 99%. Keeping the blocking rate (approximate 95%) just reaching the infection turning point cannot against the spreads of COVID-19 epidemics.

Conclusion: Strict prevention and control strategies implemented in Shanghai authority are not only effective but also necessary. To avoid multiple outbreaks of an epidemic, authorities should at least maintain preventive and control measures implemented 7 days after inflection turning point until all new infections have been cleared.