Журнал инфекционных заболеваний и патологии

Абстрактный

Was Guinea the Source of the Ebola Virus contagion? Evidence via a Dynamic Equicorrelation Model

Nadhem Selmi

Forecasting the death number and co-movement case evolution is critically important in investigating the Ebola virus spreading phenomenon. To this end, it is crucial to examine investigate patterns and trends in correlations over time using daily figures data relevant to three major West African countries (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra lione) during the period ranging from March 3, 2014 to February 02, 2015. The aim is to show that several countries co-movements are possible to be simultaneously modeled by means of DCC, ADCC, GDCC, AGDCC and DECO models. Empirically, it has been discovered that correlations have significantly registered an upward trend for both countries Guinea and Sierra-Lione. Based on a time-varying measure of dynamic conditional correlation, it turns out to be impossible for a long-only virus transmission by itself to circumvent the increasing correlations, by means of adjusting the Ebola outbreak over time. However, some evidence has been attained highlighting that the DECO estimation model is actually possible, and proved that the number of Ebola-related deaths does indeed increase after three month lapse. JEL Classification: G12